Modelling international tourism and country risk spillovers for Cyprus and Malta

Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs) are developing sovereign countries that rely on tourism as a source of exports, and need a consistent inflow of foreign investment in order to facilitate economic growth. Access to international capital markets helps SITEs smooth out their consumption over time, while absorbing adverse domestic production shocks. This paper provides a comparison of tourism growth, country risk returns and their associated volatilities (or uncertainty) for 2 SITEs, namely Cyprus and Malta. Monthly data are available for both international tourist arrivals and composite country risk ratings compiled by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for the period May 1986 to May 2002. The time-varying conditional variances of tourism growth and country risk returns for the 2 SITEs are analysed using multivariate models of conditional volatility. Empirical results show that Cyprus and Malta are complementary destinations for international tourists. Changes to tourism patterns in Cyprus lead to changes to tourism patterns in Malta. Hence, tour operators and national tourism promotion authorities in Cyprus and Malta should collaborate closely in marketing and promoting joint tourism products. Moreover, foreign entities interested in investing in the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta should consider investment projects that span a long period of time. The performance of the tourism sector and the associated composite risk are independent of each other for the two countries. However, there is a direct relationship between the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta and their respective country risk settings.     

网络会计信息失真的风险及对策

会计信息化的失真导致产生技术风险、业务风险以及管理风险。强化技术安全、建立科学合理的网络财务会计理论体系,加强应以管理,增强企业竞争力,实时进行全面核算监督,最大限度地减少会计信息失真带来的风险,把损失控制在最小程度。     

我国外汇储备过多的风险及管理对策

按照外汇储备适度性标准,我国过度持有的外汇储备高达1万多亿美元。过度持有外汇储备面临泡沫经济风险和外汇储备稳定性风险。如何控制外汇储备的超常增长,开拓有效使用外汇储备的渠道,就成为我国经济运行中急待解决的问题。本文对各国外汇储备管理制度加以概括,并在此基础上提出了构建新的管理模式、监控和打击投机资本、弥补养老金和社会保障缺口、提高外商直接投资准入门槛、推动外汇储备投资多元化和拓宽政策性金融业务等有效使用外汇储备的思路和对策。     

Franchise failure: a reassessment of the Bates (1995) results

Franchising is often touted as a safe route to business ownership in the service arena. Yet findings by Bates (J Small Bus Manage 33(2):26–36, 1995) suggest that franchising may be a riskier alternative for prospective business owners than starting a non-franchised business. We contend that this conclusion is inappropriate because flaws in Bates’ study lend themselves to alternative interpretations of his results. The most critical flaws and plausible alternative interpretations are explained, and implications for prospective business owners are discussed.     

我国高新技术企业国际化经营中的风险管理研究

近年来,高新技术产业在全球范围内飞速发展,而我国也一直把发展高新技术作为国际经济竞争和综合国力较量的重点,积极鼓励并支持高新技术企业"走出去",从事国际化经营。然而,高新技术企业是典型的风险企业,加之全球经济的诸多不确定因素逐渐显露,对我国高新技术企业国际化经营带来了一定的负面影响。本文从高新技术企业国际化经营影响因素入手,以风险管理过程为主体,构建高新技术企业国际化经营的风险识别机制,并运用模糊综合评价等方法,建立我国高新技术企业国际风险评价模型,最终探讨我国高新技术企业国际化经营中的风险管理系统。     

当前国有银行改革的政策风险与政策启示--兼论外汇储备注资的货币扩张效应

当前以外汇储备注资开始的国有银行改革试点蕴含着很高的政策风险.在微观层面,政府所有(或控制)的股权结构能否衍生出健康良好的银行公司治理机制,能否真正划清政府与银行之间的界限,本身存在疑问;在宏观层面,货币化的操作方式会加剧甚至诱发宏观不稳定.国有银行的风险归根结底是一种系统性的制度风险,是一种道德风险,最终要通过全面的体制转轨和健康、持续的经济增长来消化.     

金融发展对科技创新影响的实证研究--基于北京市和上海市的比较分析

文章采用1991-2012年北京市和上海市的时间序列数据对金融发展与科技创新之间的关系进行实证研究。首先介绍北京市和上海市金融发展和科技创新的现状,其次构建模型进行协整分析检验,并采用格兰杰因果检验方法来说明金融发展对科技创新的影响,研究结果表明：北京市的金融发展能够促进科技创新,而科技创新并不能反过来促进金融发展,两者之间是单向因果关系;上海市金融发展与科技创新之间是双向因果关系,金融发展促进科技创新,科技创新也能反过来促进金融发展。最后提出优化发展环境,促进金融发展,营造金融生态环境,加快金融改革创新等相关建议。     

做市商制度对我国新三板市场的影响

场外交易市场建设初期,做市商制度在各国家及地区得到普遍应用。随着市场规模的扩大,交易制度逐步演变为混合性做市商制度。2014年我国新三板市场引入做市商制度,通过对市场整体以及协议转让、做市转让两类股票样本进行比较,文章认为在政策推动、市场主体积极参与等因素作用下,新三板市场整体规模、流动性均得到快速提高,做市商制度在流动性改善、价值发现等方面具有重要作用,挂牌公司具有较强的差异性对分层管理提出了现实需求。提高流动性仍然是新三板市场的重要任务之一,文章认为需要从制度、需求、供给、监管四个方面进行采取积极措施。     

基于风险选择与投资收益的外汇储备币种结构研究

随着外汇储备规模的不断增加,国家外汇储备投资的风险偏好亦会发生相应的变化。借鉴 J. H.Makin(1971)的方法,构建外汇储备币种结构配置理论模型,讨论在效用最大化的情况下,储备资产投资如何在安全性、流动性和盈利性三原则间进行权衡。假设外汇储备仅投资于美元和欧元两种币种资产,选取2000年初~2014年第三季度的10年期美国国债和欧元区公债季度数据,运用协整分析、格兰杰检验等方法进行的实证研究发现：储备货币在外汇储备中的比重与储备货币收益率及其三阶矩显著正相关,国家外汇储备投资总体而言是风险规避型的。     

Modelling Risk Perceptions of Stakeholders in Public–Private Partnership Toll Road Contracts

This paper investigates the risk perceptions of key stakeholder groups typically involved in public–private partnership (PPP) toll roads. Risk perceptions have an important impact on these PPP schemes for investing in public infrastructure. However, the nature and extent of risk associated with the specification of a PPP contract that commits contracting parties to deliver on their obligations remain unclear. In the context of major transport infrastructure, such as a new toll road, the often‐cited key risk to investors is the traffic (and hence demand) risk. There are, however, other risks, including political risk and media risk, the latter often causing untold harm resulting in modifications to the planned infrastructure. This paper develops a method to capture evidence on how public sector and private sector partners involved in previous PPPs perceive the levels of risk associated with each risk attribute, as a way of identifying the ex ante risk setting brought to negotiations in PPP toll road investments. Using a sample of 101 experts with contract experience in 32 countries, we develop a stated choice experiment and estimate a discrete choice model to quantify a risk profile index (RPI) to capture the perceived (relative) influence of each dimension of risk, and then identify sources of systematic differences in the RPI as a way of understanding the influence of personal traits and contextual and contractual factors.